Well, here it is, early October … and most of us who follow politics wonder what this election’s “October Surprise” is going to be. Or, has it already occurred? We suppose it is possible that the “Mitt Slap” to Obama on 3 October was a valid surprise, but then so too was the somewhat miraculous, if not incredulous decrease in unemployment to 7.8% from 8.1%.
Let’s talk about those percentages for just a moment. I heard former GE CEO Jack Welch say that he doesn't believe those numbers. He ought to know about things like that. But then we had others, mostly moderates, who asserted, “The people who work at the Labor Department are honest, hardworking economists and mathematicians. Such people would never fix labor statistics for political purposes.”
But now about those surprises: what do you think —has the October Surprise already arrived? If not … what do you think it is likely to be? Of course, if the unemployment number drops to 2% just before the general election, that would be an astounding “November Surprise.”
But we should try to keep our heads and recall that, in regard to Chicago style political miracles, a five point drop in unemployment would not be out of the question.
Z wants to add here to Mustang's excellent post: I think the DEBATE was the OCTOBER SURPRISE (including the bump for Romney since that night and his foreign policy speech), and that this Thursday night will be the OCTOBER STUNNER! :-)
Z'd like to add that Mr. Z died three years ago today. I just had to mention it here...he loved geeeeZ.