Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Voila!

Don't you just love surprises?

We do.

Well, here it is, early October … and most of us who follow politics wonder what this election’s “October Surprise” is going to be. Or, has it already occurred? We suppose it is possible that the “Mitt Slap” to Obama on 3 October was a valid surprise, but then so too was the somewhat miraculous, if not incredulous decrease in unemployment to 7.8% from 8.1%.

Let’s talk about those percentages for just a moment.  I heard former GE CEO Jack Welch say that he doesn't believe those numbers.  He ought to know about things like that.  But then we had others, mostly moderates, who asserted, “The people who work at the Labor Department are honest, hardworking economists and mathematicians.  Such people would never fix labor statistics for political purposes.”

Right.  I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn.  I’ll even move it for you.

The source of my skepticism is this: I have firsthand knowledge that psychometricians routinely fudge state testing data because state boards of education demand it.  Nothing is ever put into writing.  It only takes about 2 minutes; it only involves one small adjustment to psychometric matrices.  I agree with Mr. Welch: there’s something rotten in Denmark. 

But now about those surprises: what do you think —has the October Surprise already arrived? If not … what do you think it is likely to be? Of course, if the unemployment number drops to 2% just before the general election, that would be an astounding “November Surprise.”

But we should try to keep our heads and recall that, in regard to Chicago style political miracles, a five point drop in unemployment would not be out of the question.

Z wants to add here to Mustang's excellent post:  I think the DEBATE was the OCTOBER SURPRISE (including the bump for Romney since that night and his foreign policy speech),  and that this Thursday night will be the OCTOBER STUNNER!   :-)

-Mustang Sends

Z'd like to add that Mr. Z died three years ago today.   I just had to mention it here...he loved geeeeZ.  

z

50 comments:

Rita said...

Three years. It can sometimes seem so long ago and sometimes it feels like yesterday. May the Good Lord be with you today Z.

As to the October Surprise I think the developing firestorm developing over the Benghazi attack is turning very bad for President O. The hearings today and the conference call where the administration conveniently forgot to include Fox News are bringing out very damaging security concerns and cover ups.

It's finally capturing the lame stream media and the facts are looking bad.

For those leftists that claim Fox News is a hack consider why our federal government deliberately leaves out a major news source from a critical conference call regarding this nation's security and a terrorist attack.

That fact alone should frighten everyone. That this administration is as close to having only state run news media. They would crush a news source that dares question them if they had the power.

DaBlade said...

Certainly, the obama campaign will try throwing the kitchen sink at Romney. October surprises only roll one way when you have a complicit state-owned press. The Benghazi attack and cover up by this administration is proof of this. Remember the tsunami of negative press and ridicule aimed at President Bush after the speech with the "Mission Accomplished" banner in the background? Contrast that to Obama and his narrative that "al-Qaeda is on the run and osama is no more... uhhhh... pay no attention to Benghazi. Just step over the Ambassador's corpse and other murdered Americans... nothing to see here."

And Z, I do remember Mr. Z and his routine visits here. Thoughts and prayers to you my friend.

Elmers Brother said...

There's lies, damn lies and statistics.

Always On Watch said...

I hate to be a wet blanket, but I think that we haven't seen the October surprise yet -- the surprise that Obama and his minions have planned, that is.

Besides, why wouldn't there be more than one October surprise from the Dems?

Ed Bonderenka said...

@Z: Scherie prays for your consolation regularly and today we both do.
As for October surprises:
1: They are always from the administration's side.
2: They are always a surprise.

Ducky's here said...

David Paleologos at Suffolk University in Boston, a very well respected polling expert, is calling Virginia, North Carolina and Florida for Romney.
He feels Obama has no way to recover.

This could seal it.

Circling the drain a little quicker is all it means.

Sam Huntington said...

I am praying for you today, Z.

I think that for as long as there is such a thing as Chicago politics, there will be room for last minute surprises. As we learn the truth behind the Benghazi attack, one cannot help but wonder about the weirdness of White House behavior in trying to conceal what actually transpired. My point is that the administration is capable of anything.

conservativesonfire said...

I agree with Rita. Obama's SNAFUs in the Middle-East are just beginning to burn out of control. However, I am equally sure that Axelrod has his own October surprise planned and ready to spring on us.

Linda said...

Ah, Z, 3 years already? I'm sure it has been long for you. We are all praying for peace for you today. Thanks for the post.

Linda said...

I guess we'll see what October will continue to bring.

The Debonair Dudes World said...

The October surprise may not be as Obama planned. As we all now know the whole Libya film story was fabricated by this lying and treasonous President and his Lap Dogs Hillary Clinton and Susan Rice. They, used the “so called” anti-Muslim film for their own good so that they would be able to Cover Up the real reasons. Including refusing to supply more security for the Embassy and the Ambassador and his staff who were murdered. Maybe this October Surprise will be the nail in Obama's re-election coffin.
Get the popcorn ready folks, the next debate should be a dandy.
Even Big Bird has a stake in it.
One has to wonder if he (Obama) is securing more security for Big Bird!
Mitt Romney needs to jump all over this, and not let the Media sweep it under the rung with the rest of Obama’s and Hillary’s LIES! . Let the Messiah talk about Big Bird, maybe that’s all he has left and that’s all he is capable of discussing. Because he can’t lie his way out of this one any longer. The trouble with lying is that you have to keep telling more lies to try to protect the original lie that was told in the first place..

Z said...

thanks for your prayers, it means a lot to me. In some ways, it feels like Mr. Z's been gone 3 years, in other ways, it's like he's been gone 3 days, particularly with those 'coincidences' I had recently!

Ed, that's an honor; please tell Scherie THANKS and that I'm SO glad she's doing so well.

I will comment politically from work ...

Z said...

From SilverLady via email to me; she caught this:

"Karl Rove and the Republicans are looking forward to a breakfast the day after the election. They are going to assemble 17 angry old white men for breakfast, some of them will slobber in their food, some will have scrambled eggs, some will have oatmeal, their teeth are gone. But these 17 angry old white men will say, 'Hey, we just bought America. Wasn't so bad. We still have a whole lot of money."

Harry Reid (D-NV), Senate Majority Leader


You see, folks...Democrats don't have SOros' $$, nor do they have Tides Foundation or any of the other myriad sources of HUGE money, like Streisand, Clooney, etc...gazillionaires like those the Dem presidents stay with on vacations, with miles of land in WYoming or seashores, etc.

It's apparently all about ANGRY WHITE MEN SUPPORTING REPUBLICANS who will have "bought America" because Reed's such a sore and fearful LOSER.

I hope this quote gets around...what an ugly little man Reed is, isn't he? Sad, really.

Z said...

I just saw an email saying "Look at your front doorstep" and neighbors had a beautiful orchid plant and card outside in memory of Mr. Z...

There are blessings everywhere...it feels so good that people remember my husband like this...and know that the gorgeous plant would cheer me up!

FrogBurger said...

I don't think it'll drop that much right before the election. The big drop was the last one, otherwise you make the scam look worse than it is when it's right before an election.

I think the Obama's campaign is now losing the perception battle. Obama's poor performance made them nasty and American people are sick of the nastiness when you've been incompetent.

And now there's Benghazi and the hearings.

In the meantime, the Dems are focusing on Big Birds and stuff for children. I don't think it's helping their case.

If Romney can stay friendly, competent like at the debate, while Obama's goons are going crazy, it's all good.

The Political Chic said...

Finally we are hearing the truth about the assault and murders in our Libyan Consulate
where our Ambassador and 3 of his staffers were brutally murdered and our Embassy was destroyed and set afire, where our flag was torn down and burned, and an Islamic flag was erected in its place. and not the lies that the Obama’s want us to hear. These facts need to be brought to everyone’s attention.
And our president has the stupidly to make commercials speaking about Big Bird! Because Mitt Romney said he would defund public broadcasting if elected.
There are too many people who don't know about these new enlightening events about the assault and murders in our Libyan Consulate! And some of these people are still in a dreamworld about Obama. Obama is stuck on this Big Bird thing and is getting a pass on Jobs, the phoney unemployment numbers, the economy, and yes foreign policy.

But he hasn’t responded to the accusations about his lying and the fact that his Sec of State and the UN Ambassador Rice selling us a BS story. Yes this makes Nixon’s cover up look like small potatoes.
His lack of supplying the security asked for by the Ambassador, puts the deaths of the the Ambassador and three others on the hands of this administration. And the Nation must be made aware of it..

FrogBurger said...

Three years already! Time flies. I'll be thinking of Mr Z. today. Big bisou!

Radical Redneck said...

After reading the latest polls that are flooding the internet all this week showing that Mitt Romney has made significant gains with independent voters across the country, I couldn’t help myself from taking the unpleasant trip down the sewer to see the Progressives response. Tis there where I saw the predictable spin about the news that is on fire about the new results in the swing-state polls showing Mitt Romney making big gains in all three critical battleground states.
So to that news, may I say that the Real Freak Show Is how the Progressive Bloggers are trying to defend OBAMA LOUSY PERFORMANCE!
And it‘s worth mentioning that as of this very moment, Big Bird is still alive and Ambassador Stevens and his 3 staffers are Still Dead.

Bob said...

The election surprises you are talking about are reserved for the last couple of days before election day. The idea is to publish some really bad news, or bad incident that puts the Republican in a bad light, allowing no time for a reaction.

The GW Bush drunk driving episode was reserved to the Friday before the election. This put it into the nation's consciousness for three days prior to the election, but left only one business day to mitigate the effects. It almost cost Bush the election because the polls had him leading about five points prior to that incident.

As far as the jobless numbers go, this is a statistical process. Errors are inherent in any statistical process, and the people massaging the numbers can massage in any direction they want and defend pretty much any adjustment.

All unemployment numbers are adjusted after release. They are never correct. It is obvious that the numbers have been faked.

The Republicans are too honest to make up an Obama last minute crime. I favor a Photoshopped picture with Obama using the family dog, Bo, as an object of sexual endearment.

Regards to Z. She is in my thoughts with sympathy and understanding on this day of remembrance.

Silverfiddle said...

It's still a long and winding road to election day. Anything could happen. Get your likeminded friends, family members and neighbors out to vote!

The Debonair Dudes World said...

So if I have the facts correct and I thing that I do, Obama knew all of the facts regarding the Libyan Embassy attack within hours after it happened and everyone including the President was up to their ears in the Cover-up and knew that their friends in the Muslim Brotherhood also known as Al Qaeda who overthrew Gadaffi were the ones that carried out the attack on our diplomatic compounds in Libya and Egypt and killed Ambassador Stevens and the 3 others.
The Three Stooges, Obama, Clinton, and Rice panicked and they concoct a bull-shit story about a videotape that had absolutely nothing to do with it and mob of protestors that just happened to have a supply of heavy weapons. So our Dear Leader send his advance team of Clinton and Rice, to the media to sell this cock and bull story to the American citizens and the rest of the world. The problem was there is no way to hide this attempt to cover it up.
In today’s hearings they said then the bull-shit story was NEVER the real truth.
And that NEVER even one person in that mod in Libya even ever hear about the so called video tape.
The bottom line is that there NEVER WAS ANY “PROTEST” our embassy was bombed, four people 2 or them were former Navy Seals and our Ambassador was killed, they withdraw security, our ambassador was killed in cold blood, withdraw security, another bombing more security withdrawn....it makes you wonder why did Obama need this to happen?
And the guy who made this video that had NOTHING to do with whole thing is still in jail
So when will Clinton, and Rice, and Obama come clean and report the REAL facts (if ever). And when will the "press" to apologize to Mitt Romney, and admit that Romney was correct and that he "didn’t jump the gun"!
And why the rush to send Rice and Clinton to come out with that BS story?
But let’s face it we can expect hell to freeze over before we hear the real truth about this cover up..

Bob said...

Sam Huntington said, "...one cannot help but wonder about the weirdness of White House behavior..."

Great observation, Sam. If Obama would have come forward and taken responsibility, the damage could have been healed before election day. But, Obama is not a man to take responsibility.

Brooke said...

Obama still has something up his sleeve or I'm not sitting here typing this...

Hopefully, Romney has a bigger bomb, or he just continues to point to Obama's. ;)

FrogBurger said...

Anything could happen. Get your likeminded friends, family members and neighbors out to vote!

I did my address change 3 months ago and the CA DMV hasn't changed my voter registration yet. I think it's on purpose for people registered as Republicans.

JonBerg said...

Sam,

I 2nd everything you have said here. That being said, with regard to the Benghazi attack and the "weirdness of White House behavior"; I can only surmise that this Administration still holds our collective cognition in utter contempt! It's high time that we demonstrate to B.O. that the preponderance of "useful idiots", that he has counted on, no longer exist!

The Political Chic said...

Isn't it ironic that when Obama was up in the polls, all we saw was gloating and bragging from the progressive bunch, but when the tables have turned things have gotten to be very silent. . How's that crow taste now, libbies?

After watching those Libyan hearing today , I'd say that it looks like Obama and Secretary of State Clinton are in deep doo doo.

No matter how much you liberals try and spin this one, the blame rests solely on the shoulders of the Messiah.
Obama is toast and Madam Hillary can forget about ever being elected the first woman president.

Mustang said...

@ TPC

I wish you were correct. The Clinton's are made of Teflon. Nothing sticks to those slime.

Impertinent said...

Here's another October surprise...not really. We all know this but now it's been confirmed....Thanks Veritas and O'Keefe.
DNC....Despicable Nut jobs and Commies.

http://tinyurl.com/8c3ngl2



And again...

http://tinyurl.com/9jf89fa

Impertinent said...

Maybe this time it'll leave egg on her pants suit...she learned to lie from a master...

An obvious terror attack, according to security pros who had just returned from the country, and yet your Secretary of State went out there three days later as Stevens’s body was arriving at Andrews AFB and denounced “rage and violence directed at American embassies over an awful Internet video that we had nothing to do with.”

If personnel like Lt. Col. Wood knew it was terrorism and the State Department allegedly never concluded that there was a protest in front of the consulate, why was Hillary talking about an “awful Internet video” in the aftermath?"



Why? Because she Rice and Carney were lying through their teeth..and still are even today.

Impertinent said...

"The Taliban are on the inside of the building"


http://tinyurl.com/99j32et

Z said...

I haven't read many of the last comments, but saw Clinton mentioned.

Today, I was thinking about how much she and Bill despise Obama and wondered if this thing with the State Dept releasing information that makes the WH look like the liars they are isn't purposeful?

I know Hillary didn't get Stevens killed (directly) but, I just got to thinking about how bad this makes Obama look and how the State Dept is largely behind the revelations that Stevens WAS scared and HAD asked for help.

just a thought...I wouldn't put anything past the CLIntons...even getting a Republican elected to screw Obama over and pave the way for what THEY think could be a run for HIllary...although I think Romney'd do so well she wouldn't stand a change in 2016.


I'd like to mention that I hope she's at least cut her hair by 2016 (Mean, I know...but I couldn't resist)

Impertinent said...

I don't know Z...it seems plausible but she is after all, in charge. How she washes the egg of her face over this is beyond me. Who does she blame? How can she blame anyone else?

It's a very risky proposition for her unless she knows she's finished with politics anyway. And she throws herself on the mercy of Issa and his committee? They hate each other BTW. Maybe he hates Holder more?

Chuck said...

Three years. Prayers from fly-over land for you Z.

I think the October surprise is Obama cooperating with Israel on bombing Iran.

It is low risk because the rest of Islamistan doesn't like Iran much and it would be big enough. He needs something big at this point.

Impertinent said...

@Chuck


It is low risk...


Really? WW3? The Gulf on fire? US bases attacked by Iranian missiles? An aircraft carrier sunk in the Straits of Hormuz blocking all shipping? Oil at $300 per barrel.....gas at ( a real 10 - 1 value ) $30 bucks a gallon?

And if Israel failed to shut off all the nuke sites...we'd have to clean up after them? Then...even if we stayed out of it...we couldn't cause they'd assume we helped Bibi...then the rockets raining down on Israel's major cities with huge casualties...

Then Bibi would have no choice except to launch some of his 200+ nukes to finish the job.

You really think the chicken in chief would risk this?

Kid said...

I've been watching the numbers, daily and weekly since 2007. That's 5 years straight.

The "Initial Jobless Claims" have been coming in weekly at from 370,000 to 425,000 each and every week. Lately (the last 12 months say) the lower end of the range.

The employment numbers ADP or Non-Farm payrolls have been coming in anywhere from 100,000 to 125,000 per week for the last 24 months or so.

There is No Valid Reason for the percentage to make that big of a move.
None.

Kid said...

IMP. ALL! Even after these last 4 years, I am STUNNED at the level of lying from obama and hilrod.

Stunning. Lots to say, words get in the way.

If America votes for THIS? You're all done. Especially those of you who happen to be Losers. You'll be the first ones to go because you haven't prepared for Jack and do you Really think these evil POS's give a rats ass about you?

Good God Y'all !

You will get what you deserve though after playing your voting part in destroying America. Hey, it's Nature.

The Political Chic said...

I almost would not mind seeing Obama re-elected now so that he would be impeached and thrown out of office as he should be for allowing American citizens, including an AMBASSADOR, to be killed, and then lying about it

Impertinent said...

Imagine..."Big Bird" being defended by a chicken...Big Turd!

It's hilarious that the "pres" of the US is devoting his time and energy to the low life's and Vidiots of this country...while the world burns around him...to defending this silly chicken. Words fail me.

Unemployment...sky rocketing energy prices...the ME collapsing...Iran nuking Israel....double the people on food stamps....a DNC that instructs "voters" how to vote multiple times....16 trillion in debt...Our ambassador murdered by insane advocates of an insane ideology, Islime...sanctioning outright lies about terrorism...Fast & Furious...the failure of every green, stupid idea he backed and wasted our money on.

Then he sends out FORM letters to the families of those killed in Combat...while sending a handwritten note to the family of a scumbag rapper shot by his feral buds?

Is this the freaking Twilight Zone? Nope...it's Obullshit at his best.

Kid said...

Hard to verbalize ain't it IMP ?
Though you did well, this imbecile needs a couple more books written by honest people who know the score.

I could have written a paragraph a day for the last 4 years, but I didn't want my life to be about this POS. Hopefully we'll scrape him and michele off the sole og our shoe in a few months and that will be that.

Impertinent said...

@Kid...

Think how long it's going to take to fumigate the WH?

And get his filthy shoe marks off the desk and the furniture.

Kid said...

IMP, I wouldn't step foot in there without a complete make-over. Carpet, paint, beds, the whole shootin match.

Then Electronic bugs, cameras and anything in that category.

And; You know that place has been full of islamics too. Strip that thing to the walls and Xray the walls and floors.

Seriously,If I were Romney, I'd be making arrangements for temporary housing for at least a couple months.

Impertinent said...

@ Political Chic

"he would be impeached and thrown out of office..."


By whom? You need an honest, diligent non partisan press to do that. Just like the dogs who hunted Nixon down. And that...ain't gonna happen with this toad.

Hell...he could be caught buck naked in the back of the beast ( his Limo ) with his gay lover or Barney Frank or Beyonce and Valerie Jarret while downing an 8 ball of coke and an ounce of mary jane...and the press would say he was set up?

Since Billy Bob was forgiven for staining a blue dress with his Arkansas goo...the press has never looked back.

Impertinent said...

@Kid...


Hell....lets let our former masters have a go at it again.....give them the matches too.

They did it once....since he's insulted the Brits, the Queen and the memory of Winston Churchill...I'd bet they be happy to do the honors...for old time sake...ya know?

Kid said...

Imp, That works for me. Build a new one from the ground up.

The Bits are far too classy though at this point. Though I do think you could talk the Queen out of the obama iPod gift as more fodder for the fire. I'll bet she'd actually toss the damn thing on herself.

Impertinent said...

@Kid

"I'll bet she'd actually toss the damn thing on herself..."


I'm sure she already has done that. Or maybe buried it with Diana....offffff.

JonBerg said...

The Political Chic......
My God, I love the way that you think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kid said...

Imp, at the time, I'd thought if I was her, I'd have given it to one of the staff to dispose of and somehow leak that out to the obamas.

But now, I'm thinking a better plan would be to just put it in a box, pas it down, and when history defines the obamas as the ghetto slugs and thugs they are, sell it on Ebay. Hopefull y to some libtard like bill mahr with far too much money in his pocket.

beakerkin said...

Three years went by fast. I blinked my girl is nine. Time is fast..

Obama is going to win and the media will pull a fast one before the election. There will be no time to do damage control.


Always On Watch said...

Beak,
I'm sure that the media will try something.

But the feel here on the ground even in liberal Northern Virginia is that Obama has screwed up so badly in so many ways.

Anonymous said...

From Z:

AOW..I'm hearing VA is VERY tight...with Romney leading in some polls...WASSUP!? You've got a huge Black population, don't you? this is good news, no?