Sunday, November 23, 2008

"Did that really happen?" the couple at the lower right hand corner asks. You bet. Can it happen again?


45 comments:

Pat Jenkins said...

very good z... there has been no period that has paralled the "wealth" this nation has gained than during the bush years. i do not think many will be able to say they are better off after four years of obama!!.. whether that is because of market forces or because of him we shall see....

Kris said...

z...i am trying to resist fear and dread. It seems i cannot think about anything but today...knowing that God has to take care of the tomorrows.

Ducky's here said...

During the Bush years?

Debt is at astronomical levels.

Home ownership went DOWN during the Chucklenuts years.

Equity assets are DOWN.

Savings are DOWN.

Unemployment is UP.

Health insurance, education costs are way UP.

Pat must use that special Libertarian math.

Anonymous said...

Home ownership went UP to UNPRECEDENTED levels in recent years, and THAT is the crux of the real estate problem.


Our current real estate woes are two-pronged:


1) Thanks to Idiotarian Liberal policies forced on banks and lending institutions by GOVERNMENT too many UNQUALIFIED buyers were given mortgages with little or no collateral. Most of them never had the tiniest chance (or serious intention) of paying back what they had borrowed, and so we have massive FORECLOSURES and SHORT SALES all over the country.

2) Speculators saw the cheap mortgage rates, artificially easy terms and skyrocketing housing prices as a great opportunity to get rich quick by "FLIPPING" houses. In other words buy 'em today for 250K and sell them a few months laster for 375K. This was a real possibility for, perhaps three or four years, and then the bottom dropped out of the market, and all these greedy fools got STUCK with costs they could not sustain.


These two phenomena --- poor unqualified buyers and greedy, get-rich-quick fools --- are responsible for the housing crisis, but the ROOT of the problem lies in STUPID GOVERNMENT POLICIES that were FORCED on bankers and lenders.

~ FreeThinke

Misfit410 said...

Ducky
in 2006 everything was up, the Dow was sitting pretty, home ownership was at it's highest, unemployment at it's lowest, lovely how you forget what happened since then!!! The War will end, bad liberal policy that got us here likely won't

Ducky's here said...

Point of order. The 15% drop in home prices that was announced today, does that count against the yet to be sworn in Obama or against The Dauphin?

Ducky's here said...

misfit. is it 2006?

Do you have a fastball?
Give me your best game.

Joe the Plumber didn't even come close to matching inflation in the Chucklenuts years.

Karen Townsend said...

And, Rich Galen has a good column about Robert Rubin and his hand in the current financial mess. He was the sainted savior of the Clinton administration's treasury dept and now makes $17 million a year advising Dems as they destroy Wall Street and the financial institutions. Also, sainted Obama adviser.

Anonymous said...

The 15% drop in home prices that was announced today, does that count against the yet to be sworn in Obama or against The Dauphin?

It count's against the 3rd Clintoon term.

Ducky's here said...

Does anyone else join Pat and Misfit in essentially stating that the success of an asset bubble economy should be judged by the value and distribution of assets at the height of the bubble?

(((Thought Criminal))) said...

Ducky,

The current Democrat controlled Congress' first budget went into effect on October 1st, 2007, the day the stock market stopped being 14,000+ and began its meandering freefall that has it decreased in value by nearly half in just one year.

If Americans didn't want the economy in the toilet, they wouldn't have put Democrats in charge of it.

Ducky's here said...

Post hoc ergo procter hoc, Beamish.

The bubble happens to start to deflate in 2006 and you start blaming the Dems who were looking to clean up the mess.

None of you guys have a fastball, do you, except maybe Farmer.

Z said...

right. wasn't it 2006 when the dems took congress over? ya..two years ago, when the troubles really started.
Darned, if they'd only listened to Bush and McCain.........maybe the housing market would have been saved had we not caved to the Black National Caucus and decided it was cute to loan people with no money enough to get a house. Sad.

Time to stop blaming and stop bailing and buckle up and get through it. let's not suffer through the deeper depression FDR's plan put us in.

http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?v=e48z2G6UIr

Z said...

check out his eyes...it's the illustration of gripping terror.

CJ said...

Fear not, Kris, He is with you. He says "Be anxious for nothing." That's a command and He will give you the faith to obey it.

Ducky's here said...

z, how did Bush and McCheese propose saving the housing market?

But cheer up, you aren't going to see anything radical happening. Obama is appointing another crew of "bubble boys" similar to the ones who have plagues us since St. Ronnie Raygun started destroying the country. They stayed on through Clinton and Bush.

You needn't worry, Kapital will continue working its glorious magic.

Pat Jenkins said...

oh ducky let us not overlook the amount of "stuff" we have been able to "gain" during the bush economy. from cell phones to game counsels, big screen hd tv's and even that high speed internet you probably enjoy. i know you would never overlook all those goodies that have been under many a tree when you claim we are not better off.....

Z said...

BUSH warned: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/09/20080919-15.html

McCain WARNED:
McCain was referring to his 2006 decision to sign on to a Republican-led regulatory overhaul of the mortgage-financing firms, which both went through multibillion-dollar accounting scandals earlier in the decade. The occasion that prompted McCain’s involvement was the release of a 340-page report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight that concluded that Fannie Mae had manipulated earnings and violated basic accounting principles. It describes an “arrogant and unethical corporate culture” in which executives were more concerned about their bonuses than meeting the company’s housing mission.

The findings, based on a 27-month investigation and resulting in a $400-million fine paid to the government, prompted McCain to join other critics and call for more scrutiny of Fannie and its sibling, Freddie Mac. “If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole,” McCain declared in a May 26, 2006, news release.

Ducky's here said...

Yeah Pat, a deep recession so we can get plasma TV's to watch the utter crap being produced by Hollywood.

What a deal.

You sold the country for some home electronics.

You and Esau would make a great pair.

Z said...

Ducky, things are going your way, what ARE you so upset about?

i agree that I wouldn't sell a country out for plasma TVs or cell phones, but that's not what happened.

Obviously, if WE were making more of those products (and buying American) things wouldn't have gone like they have, but production is usually a good thing.

If we'd not had to pay the ridiculous costs the unions imposed on our car manufacturers, we'd maybe been able to afford American cars, too. Or, should I say, they could have put QUALITY back in, something that had to GO in order to compete...
sad

Anonymous said...

Things aren't looking too good for the future.

Anonymous said...

Consumerism has been an accident waiting to happen for a very long time. At first, sophisticated marketing had to convince Americans to spend next year’s income on goods purchased today in order to “make their lives better.” For the most part, washing machines and refrigerators did that. But then people began to take advantage of purchases that not only consumed next year’s income, but the income yet to be earned over the next five or six years. A 30-year mortgage on a home that only cost $12,000 was a pretty-good deal, even when workers made around $100 a month (1950s).

Now when government encourages companies to extend credit even to people whom at one time wouldn’t qualify under responsible guidelines, they set into motion events that confront us today. God forbid that we should tell a borrower that his credit stinks, especially when the applicant is a minority, the single mother of ten children, and if Canard Savings and Loan should deny credit to such people, they are subject to violations of the Fair Lending Act.

Meanwhile, never once a paragon of virtue, state and federal governments reasoned that if Joe Average can go into debt beyond the point at which he may never recover without federal bankruptcy assistance, why can’t they? Socialist states, always promising more without the resources to pay for “free” programs are now at the point of collapse. Citizens may one-day wake up to the fact that state medical insurance may be a worthy expenditure, but not without having to give up several other commie-pinko programs in order to sustain it. At some point, citizens may come to realize that annual vehicle registration costs of $1,200 per vehicle exceeds “reasonable.” Citizens may one day conclude that all resources are limited, including money . . . and that while tax policy should be principled, so too should spending policy.

Hanson wrote today that California is nearly bankrupt. Like most Americans are bankrupt. Like the federal government is bankrupt. So much for government regulation. And of course, “government” will get us out of this mess. Right.

Tony C said...

Pat, sorry but you missed it.

http://tonyctoday.blogspot.com/2008/10/bill-clinton-last-great-fiscal.html

Most R's won't acknowledge what the numbers show. The Clinton years combined with the help of a Republican congress brought us unprecedented economic growth.

If Bill could have just kept it in his pants...

Ducky's here said...

My anger comes from a very simple point, z.

The right wing worships an economic system that promotes the mass production of consumer items at the expense of the breakdown of the society.

They then go and complain from their little cocoons about the breakdown of the culture without accepting that they are prime culprits in that destruction.

The right has little concept of what the left is talking about when they mention socialism and think we want to go to the planned state owned economy which was soundly debunked by Hyack. Leftists tend to understand right wing economists and READ them much more often than the right.

But that isn't what the left has been proposing and we understand the nexus of the individual and society much better than the right even as the right whines about values and the like.

To be blunt, the ignorance of the right is a force that can destroy us and I don't see any reason not to be upset at the prospect.

Z said...

Ducky, your post is pretty close to delete-provoking but I'm leaving it. I did NOT BUILD THIS BLOG to have a lefty SO DUMBLY insult, so ineffectively and so uninformedly INSULT Conservatism. Please tell us which "Rightwingers" "Don't read", okay? When you find a handful of lefties who actually watch FOX or read conservative writers and FINALLY see what some of MY Lefty friends are saying "Hey, FOX actually has TWO SIDES in their panels...CNN NEVER DOES...mSNBC SURE NEVER DOES", then we'll talk. Too bad you're not one of the enlightened, isn't it? You could learn something.

I hate to be unkind but I'm REALLY sick of being a gracious blog hostess. This is like 'my home' and guests don't take advantage of me like you do.

YOu said "The right wing worships an economic system that promotes the mass production of consumer items at the expense of the breakdown of the society."

Can you tell us how you figure this? there IS nothing better for our economy than mass producing things consumers want to pay for. That's GOOD for a country. That we have problems is FAR FAR deeper than this and far different than you think.

Read Mustang's post..it MIGHT help.

Anonymous said...

They then go and complain from their little cocoons about the breakdown of the culture without accepting that they are prime culprits in that destruction.

Yes, ducky, the right invented the "counter-culture". The "right" threw Western Civilization OUT of the University. And the right promoted Women's Lib and founded GLAD. Grow up.

Anonymous said...

The only thing the right did wrong was to NOT smother the 60's anti-war student movement in its' cradle. And if Southern blacks hadn't actually HAD a half a case, we WOULD HAVE!

Z said...

Fj...What WOULD we do without you?

Anonymous said...

::standing behind FJ::
BOOYAH, Ducky!!

Dang, I wish I could think of stuff like that.
:-)

Ducky, there are people on both sides who don't read enough and only contribute to the problem. You have to recognize that.

Seems to me that you have a very limited and stereotyped vision of what conservatism is, and who conservatives are. If you spent some time with my family, I think you'd really enjoy yourself. You'd not feel condemned, at all. We have all of our original teeth, and I rarely wear a moo-moo. My kids aren't named Skeeter or Junior, and I personally don't dig Nascar.

You mention the ignorance of the right, but I see just as much closemindedness coming from the left. If we'd all just be willing to lighten up a little bit and give and take more....

whatever. I'm a dreamer.

Pat Jenkins said...

so ducky i take it you have forgone all the material wants and needs of this world mimmicking a buddha state of purity. we all should learn from your disciplne. most notably mr. obama who feels the less should have more!!!

Anonymous said...

Awwww, shucks, ma'am....

*blush*

btw - Before my three kids became in-finks they were nick-named "Scooter", "Skeeter" and "Skitter". ;-)

Anonymous said...

My favorite uncle calls me a rat-fink! I don't know if I'm a red-neck or a hillbilly, or what the difference is. What I neglected to mention is...today I heard myself "holler"...

"Bubba! Don't you run out in that street, you hear me? And keep an eye on yore Sissy!"

ouch.

;-)

Z said...

Pinky..don't tell me you went in after that experience and turned NASCAR on!

Loved your post..As IF conservatives don't read any more than libs do and I'll wager a guess we do a lot more reading....Because we don't read the leftist newspapers and stop there, happy to have journalists echo our agenda. We have to keep reading to get the other side and then WEIGH, after we say to ourselves "Oh, THAT's the truth..who knew?"

oy.

Hermit: A man of few words..but them thar words are scary words! (just tryin' to talk like a Ducky-generalization of a Conservative)

Anonymous said...

tee hee.
No NASCAR for me, Z.
It's good background noise for napping on a lazy afternoon. Kind of like NFL games.
Blasphemy, I know.

I did fry some okra as a side for supper tonight. Where was everybody??

(((Thought Criminal))) said...

Ducky,

Post hoc ergo procter hoc, Beamish.

It's cute when you leftists plead the 30-second memory span defense.

If Dems wanted to "clean up the mess" in 2006 then it stands to reason that in October 2007, the earliest date that their enacted budgetary and regulatory policies would take effect something to address the problem would have taken priority over, I don't know, swishing Barry Bonds' urine for the taste of steroids?

(((Thought Criminal))) said...

Pinky,

You're supposed to put out a fried okra alert.

Z said...

I love ANY kind of okra...mmmm

Mom made it slimey...!! Steeped in tomato sauce with plenty of lemon juice and chunks of lamb shank..OY, is that GOOOOD!!!

Anonymous said...

I'll ring the dinner bell earlier next time, Beamish.

I'll have to trust you on the slimy okra, Z. :-)

Z said...

Pinky, that's the REAL way to eat okra! (Smile)

Anonymous said...

Slimey - only if it's found at the bottom of a pot of file gumbo.

Z said...

Fj....you'd love my mother's lamb and okra stew, I PROMISE!!

Ducky's here said...

z, I wonder if you permit honest dialog. Please note that I haven't been abusive. I'm just trying to see if we can get to a basis in fact. Take mustangs post.

He starts out , correctly I'd say, by stating that the old thirty year mortgage was a pretty good deal for Americans. It was most prominent when Fannie Mae was entirely a government organization which flattened risk and made the 30 year more affordable and widely available.
Why it was privatized is an excellent subject for a later time.


He then goes on to mention subprime loans and here's where it gets ugly. There is no mention of the up front commissions in non regulated companies like Ameriquest or Countrywide, no mention of derivatives, no mention of the failure of the ratings industry, no mention of investment bank leveraging, no mention of accounting failures to boost bonuses at Fannie ... no mention of the major contributing factors.

What we have is the right wing defense of their failed deregulation in the hypothetical loan to a minority (preferably a woman with ten kids in Mustangs example). Now, he mentions a Savings and Loan and the CRA. Savings and Loans didn't fail during this mess. They were making the standard 30 year fixed loan and regardless of whether it went to a minority or not, those loans were NOT part of this problem. The default rate was within historic norms.

He then goes on to conflate government spending with "socialism" which is completely inaccurate.

So I don't see how it advanced the argument much. I give this basic premise:

The mortgage market failed because too much money was made available for unregulated products by the Fed. I say this because Alan Greenspan has as much admitted it.
This junk paper was then leveraged and sold throughout the world banking system until it started crippling European banks especially because they were even less regulated than American institutions.
Note that the highly regulated Chinese banking system DID NOT fail.

Ergo: The culprit was primarily deregulation.

An honest response to an honest post might get us closer to the truth of this matter.

Anonymous said...

I have to begin with an acknowledgement that some government regulation is both prudent and necessary, but not to the extent to where government incompetence produces faulty regulations that does no more than open the door for malfeasance on the part of members of congress, or unlawful or ill-advised/irresponsible acts by mortgage brokers, speculative investment bankers, and individual borrowers.

I’m looking for responsible balance; Ducky’s looking for a command economy. I have to admit that his reference to China was an interesting revelation. We can most certainly address corruption in government and business when the penalty is a 9mm slug into the back of the head, but I am somehow not convinced that most Americans are ready for Chinese leadership techniques.

I believe that comments should be as concise as possible; I know I am guilty of writing a tome from time to time. So I naturally did not address every aspect of the housing crisis, or its impact on financial markets. Had I intended to do that, I would post it at my own blog, not in comments for Z. Nevertheless, while this statement is true, “There is no mention of the up front commissions in non regulated companies like Ameriquest or Countrywide . . .” it is also true that I did not mention the rather lucrative financial advantages handed to Senator Chris Dodd by Countrywide, nor his sleazy acceptance of large amounts of campaign donations from companies he is charged to oversee. I am not picking on Mr. Dodd because he is a Democrat . . . I reference him only because he is fecal matter who should not enjoy the trust and confidence of the American people in an important leadership position. There are plenty of crooks on the Republican side, as well. At the outset, therefore, government regulation only works when we have honest politicians. That is part of the problem . . . and I would even add a large part.

A command economy follows the Marxist/socialist model. Ducky can deny this forever and a day, but it won’t alter the truth. How anyone can have confidence in government to be an honest broker in a command economy, especially in light of the failure of REGULATED INDUSTIES, simply defies logic. I am in favor of some regulation, properly managed by an independent agency, but I am not in favor of nationalization of private enterprise, or government bailout packages for companies or individuals.

Whether we are talking about dishonest politicians, corrupt corporate officials, or individuals . . . I favor personal and institutional accountability. If AIG mismanagement resulted from violations of the law, send the executives to jail—preferably in a cell next to Randy Cunningham and Chris Dodd. If a borrower is so stupid not to read the fine print in an ARM agreement, don’t look to me for sympathy. I believe the best lessons learned are the painful ones . . . but this won’t happen if government (in order to cover their own illegal activities) is willing hand out free passes. What it will do, however, is suspend the inevitable. What is the saying? Pay me now, or pay me later. Maybe if this lesson is painful, all of us will have learned an important lesson.

Ducky's here said...

Couple things , mustang.

Yes, China is authoritarian in governance but very mized in their economy. It is instructive that their banking system did not get croaked unlike other large economies. India also seems to have escaped and I'm not sure why that is.

When I mention upfront commissions I am referring to mortgage brokers who were made there money by writing a bad mortgage and immediately packaging the junk paper upstream to an investment bank who sold it 'round the world 40 or 50 times.
Please note that "Flyboy" McCain was a huge recipient of Fannie money. Any large financial establishment hedges their bets.

Command economy? I don't shirk from elements of it and I frankly believe it is a much better alternative to some present policies. I would especially like to see it applied to health insurance (N.B. I did not say health care, don't try to pull a standard right wing trick).
Socialism? I'm not scared by the word. Didn't go through the right wing indoctrination. If you're quick you can avoid it in New England. Failure of regulated industries? Failure to do what?
The financial industry was doing just fine until Raygun and Clinton started the deregulation. An economy is a damn complicated thing and if you try to force a rigid ideological framework on it, left or right, you fail. You fail badly.
Better to be open to a mixed environment, define your goals and make adjustments as you go. If any side thinks they have the full answer they are fools.

Z said...

You can condemn McCain when Obama and Kerry were the top 2 recipients? Or was it Dodd?

By the way, when are you ever going to acknowledge the letter mcCain signed regarding getting better regulation on Fannie and Freddie? Or that Bush warned five years ago about what was coming down the pike...to no avail. The Dems were tied to tightly to the Black National Caucus. Did you even look at the video I supplied you? Daniel Mudd with eyes like a deer in the headlights, scared witless to win approval from "The conscience of congress" as he put it? disgusting.