Monday, January 5, 2009

The End of the U.S.? Got the guts to read this?

Sounds pretty darned EXTREMIST, doesn't it? Read it and tell us what you think....really read it and think about it. Civil war? Division? Bankruptcy? .... a friend of mine found this and set it to me but you can Google for more. I think it's worth reading, all of it, and sending it to email friends. Maybe this just needs to be in the back of ALL our minds....What do you think?

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. P anarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his t heory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's ré sumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a clu ster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.


"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

21 comments:

Tony C said...

Wow...let's hope he misses that prediction.

I really can't imagine the U.S, breaking into so many differently controlled regions. You think the Middle East is in constant conflict...can you imagine the what-would-be former Tennessee/Georgia border?

If we do create our own undoing, I see a slip into third world irrelevance for many years followed by invasion (for resources)by a stronger nation.

Pray it never happens and the Lord returns first. I am.

Z said...

Me, too, Tony...

I hope he missed on this prediction and I SO hope it NEVER HAPPENS.

I just wish Americans could start putting the country first, but the country of self reliant people we once were not the types who can't wait for their redistribution money!
And, of course, I recognize we couldn't always have our way on everything...

I just wish we had some REALLY smart guys who knew how to put us back together while keeping the constitution in mind and remembering that America's a very special place and ..and that these smart guys knew how to sell whatever their plan was to all of us.

Elmers Brother said...

he's a lunatic

DaBlade said...

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time."

Todd Palin would kick his #$$.

Seriously though. This guy sounds like a wingnut. Sort of like Algore with his little global melting slide show.

LASunsett said...

He may be a lunatic, but only if he thinks Kentucky will agree to be tied to the EU.

I am not sure this has any real possibility of becoming a reality by 2010. But if this nation does not find a reason to stay united, some measure of this theory COULD become a reality down the road, years from now.

I would be more inclined to suggest the Southwestern states (to include California) would align itself with Mexico. The Mountain States would become a nation of right-wing militias, the Southeastern states could become the black nation that people like Farrakhan would welcome, and the Eastern seaboard would be align with the EU. The Midwest would be harder to predict.

While I think this Professor's statements are pure propaganda designed to drive wedges into the US (from a member of an empire that was divided up after losing the Cold War), it is something to think about when pondering the future. They still have some deep resentments over losing the USSR and the separation of some of the republics. Believe when I say they would love nothing more than to see this happen in their lifetimes.

Don't be fooled. It could happen, but only if we allow it to happen.

Anonymous said...

Z I didn't have the time to read the whole thing (later) butr I noticed the dumb Rusky added TN, NC, SC and WV to "Atlantic America". As lons as he's splitting up states. And as long as he's splitting up states, the Western 2/3 of VA would also go w/the south. :-)

Morgan

Chuck said...

Z, I'm just not buying this. I'm not saying it's impossible but I think it is highly unlikely any time soon.

Ducky's here said...

He's absolutely a lunatic. New England included with Kentucky and Virginia? Please.

Anonymous said...

In his dreams, Z.

Seriously though, we have had factions trying to bring this about in America for years .
Really.


Russia is projecting what THEY want to see happen here.

We have some dumb people voting in this country, but sometimes they get things right.

I think we will weather what ever comes, we can still do what needs doing and we will rise to what comes .

We do not give up and America is not over.

This is still a great country and better than a lot of other places.

I am thinking on referring to election year 2008 as a nasty belch.

Sometimes we are allowed to suffer to learn a thing or two.

WVDOTTR

CJ said...

That map looks pretty nuts to me, but it seems possible to me that the Southwest and West could revert to Mexico at some point. Some have maintained that the US took the Southwest unfairly in the first place (didn't pay a fair price for it? I haven't studied that bit of history), so that the influx of illegal aliens can be thought of as God's judgment. Of course it's more to their advantage that the area remain part of the US rather than Mexico, isn't it? However, it could go broke from the strain on the system of all the illegals and then what?

I think we're going to be seriously weakened and undermined economically starting very soon. We're already undermined culturally and split along ethnic and political lines so I'm not sure we can count on the strength we need from unity. And perhaps we'll be attacked by an enemy at some point too.

But I believe we're in the very last days of the planet anyway and our disintegration as a nation would not be the biggest of our worries as all that unfolds.

Pam said...

I'm trying to imagine the faces on our Founding Father's faces if they could read this prediction.

I DO SO HOPE AND PRAY that America wakes up and smells the coffee before it's too late!

Brooke said...

I see a revolution and a Constitutional reset long before another civil war.

And even if such a thing were to happen, I don't see it for some time, certainly not in a year.

JMK said...

The former USSR broke up along ethnic and racial lines, there are no such regional divisions here in the U.S.

Ironically, if ANYTHING, I could see harder economic times (and the current economic downturn DOES show some signs of deepening) could result in our EXPANSION, possibly annexing Canada and Mexico into a "North-American Union", based on the EU model.

In the 7's there was a secessionist movement out in the Northwest, but even that has died off.

We DO have any number of domestic terrorist groups (from the Aryan nation and the KKK, to the NOI and other black radicals to ALF and ELF and some hardcore anti-government movements) but none of those groups represent any distinct region.

In short, there exists no dynamic along which such a split would occur or be sustained....at least at this point in time.

The CLOSEST would be parts of the American southwest that are so heavilly Hispanic that there's been took of a "Reconquista" or Reconquest by Mexico....hardly likely given the seperate and distinctly American culture in that region even among the vast majority of Hispanic backgrounds.

Such secessionist movements have always been put down ruthlessly and ones here would be quashed with equal vigor.

The trend in recent years has been that artificially constructed nations with disparate and non-alligned racial/ethnic groups have come apart - the former Yugoslavia, the former USSR and even Iraq, constructed of a disparate and dissonant collection of ethnicities - Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, is still trying to deal witrh holding that artificially constructed country together.

The U.S. has no such ethnic regions...the American South which has the largest black population, is only about 30% black, and maybe 34% non-white, so it's highly unlikely we'd see any attempt at a split along any ethnic lines in this country and THAT'S been the trigger in all such successful splits.

shoprat said...

That map got quite a few laughs at my own blog a while ago. It is laughable. Even our resident socialist said it was unlikely.

I could see America splitting in two but not six pieces and the liberal section would be swallowed up, probably by Europe but the conservative section would remain independent.

Anonymous said...

I think Mr. Panarin's map is fanciful thinking on his part.

Perhaps he goes through all this because he wants Russia to annex Alaska! In which case the war would be between the U.S. and Russia.

I detect a certain degree of glee in these forcasts. What does one expect from a former KGB analyst.

I see civil strife here if the far left becomes the prevailing power in America. That, to my mind, is the only threat that could bring on a civil war, or violence substantial enough to cause instability.

If free people lose all their individual rights, and if people believe they no longer have anything to lose, that's where the risk of civil war exists IMO.

But, next fall? I don't think so. There has always been a political pendulum in America. Sometimes it swings a bit to the right of center, and like now, a bit to the left.

Hopefully, the pendulum keeps swinging.

Pris

Z said...

JMK...interesting thought about expanding instead if breaking up.

EVERYONE: I blogged this less to show particular methodologies of how our country would break up and more to show that there are those who think it will and show that their predictions are being shown true month after month, basically.

While I personally do not think we'll fracture into six parts and California will be under Chinese rule, I believe that we'd better WAKE UP about how much debt we're into with Arab and Chinese money and STOP IT.
And, I believe we need to:

STOP ALL IMMIGRATION FOR FIVE YEARS
GET IN SHORTER TERM LIMITS
CLEAN UP OUR TELEVISION/FILM, ETC.
SUPPORT FAITH-BASED GROUPS MORE
ETC.

ANYBODY LIKE TO CHIME IN ON WHAT ELSE AMERICANS MUST DO?
I'm going to blog something I just got in an email. Stay tuned!

Anonymous said...

I think the professor’s predictions prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that mind-expanding mushrooms are part of the Russian diet.

We cannot argue “United States,” does exist, but we can surely debate whether the American people have ever been united. Regionalization has plagued us from the beginning; it gave rise to the Civil War. Even today, as evidenced by Ducky’s comment, the good folks of Massachusetts are ill prepared to join hands with their southern brethren.

Added to this, quite a few former Mexicans support the “reconquest” of lands that once belonged to the King of Spain. Naturally, these are mostly the children of people granted amnesty the last time around.

Nevertheless, the prediction is about as likely as Hillary Clinton becoming a staunch republican. I would find it amusing, though, if it did happen only to experience the end of the world two years later (according to the History Channel). That’d show’em.

Incognito said...

He wishes... he and the rest of the yahoos in the world who wish the US would implode or suffer a painful death and die... it 'aint gonna happen.

Z said...

Like I'd said, I don't think it's at all likely that we'd splinter into areas like on his map...but I think he makes some points that all Americans ought to pay attention to.

I think we're so divided and so led by nothing but people who care more about their careers than us or this country and so it's a scarier time than before.

We have a generation or two left who remember America as we remember her; I'm not certain our kids quite have enough history or the truth taught to them about this great country that they'd really fight....in all ways. We're soft lately...we want handouts instead of handups...we want redistribution so that guy next door who made it has to help those who haven't been so successful..we want such a different world than the America I grew up in.

And that, I fear, is the only America who can make it through the incredible division it's in now...

Anonymous said...

I quote Ducky's here: "He's absolutely a lunatic."


Mr Panarin got Ducky and the vast majority of people posting comments here to agree on something. Now who would ever have predicted that?

-Tio Bowser

Average American said...

Just a jealous Russian. It happened to them so they want to see it happen to us. I don't know why he stuck the Northeast with Europe---what a punishment that would be.