"The term Bradley effect or (less commonly)[1] the Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of an alleged phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.[2][3][4] Specifically, there were instances in which such elections saw the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls."
For more on this, click on this link to see this discussed in regard to Obama v Hillary, or click this link, where you can see how this functioned in other elections between Black and White Americans.
Will Americans say they're voting for the Black candidate even if they disagree with his stances just to show they're not racist and then vote differently? What do you think? I think it's sad. WHEN will we get PAST that?
UPDATE: Or MAYBE Americans won't vote for Obama because....................THEY'RE TIRED OF HIM! check this out!z
35 comments:
we will get past it when we no longe poll based on black vs. white. the other thing to consider is the manner in which the polls are conducted.
in many (most?) cases questions are asked in such a manner as to almost guarantee a specific result. so the pollster asks a question that is nearly guaranteed to give him an answer that is supportive of the "right" candidate. then they report on the results as if it's actual news. then they conduct additional polls to further booster the perception that the "right" candidate is in the lead and report on those results as if it's news.
think about how often you will see the polls reported as news if the results don't support their assumptions as to who is the "right" candidate. generally if those results get shown at all it's with a caveat that says something like "in a surprising turn; however we're unsure of the accuracy of this poll."
mark alexander (patriotpost.com) calls it "pollaganda" - i tend to agree.
...and I always thought that ALL the "Democrats" benefitted from the so-called Bradley Effect.
How about the Paris Hilton effect. She owns McCain in that video her PR dept. released.
Think Grandpa Depends will respond and get sucker punched again?
Nice post...there is Obama fatigue and we haven't even had the election yet. This is what Presidents suffer at the end of their 2nd terms...But such is life when you are a celebrity, 15 minutes is about all you get unless the kiddies are taking their AD meds. I think this ad was not a sucker punch to McCain but rather some much needed exposure and that is a good thing! :)N
i would hope all voters are color blind when electing the best candidate.... but obama is not fitting that bill!!!
You're definitely on to something. It is called WHITE GUILT.
Also, for further interest, go check out my latest post. I feel that my post discusses even further the real root of the problem. I fully intended on discussing the so-called derogatory term to make people think, and to be completely honest about this without worrying about what others will think.
I think Paris Hilton definitely makes a more much more credible presidential candidate than Barack Obama...
At least she doesn't deny or play coy as to what her greatest political assets are... they're usually on full display.
we will get past it when we no longe poll based on black vs. white.
But the problem remains. Racism has tripled since 9/11. We were coming together as a nation back then and now we're back to where we were twenty years ago.
However, you are absolutely correct. No more polling with selected groups to get the desired results. This is precisely why I disagree entirely will poll methods as the results are often skewed.
Excellent post, pat.
I agree wholeheartedly. It reminds me of people asking, "Don't you think a woman could make a good President?" whenever someone voiced opposition to Hillary. As if not voting for Hillary meant you weren't voting for her because of her gender. It's ridiculous.
FJ, when my wife saw Paris's statement, she felt that she was actually putting on a show and also felt that, somehow, she's technically supporting McCain.
steve "...putting on a show and also felt that, somehow, she's technically supporting McCain."
her parents are both huge supporters of mccain. my guess is that paris is as well.
Well, I'm more on the BRADLEY effect than the PARIS effect, but..you all make good points! (?)
If Paris is for McCain, it gives you hope that even bimbos are finally waking up, huh?
Steve? "racism has tripled since 9/11" ?? How so? You're not equating our fear of Arabs as racism, are you? I don't see a Black/White thing having got worse since then.
I can't imagine there are Americans who still even SEE color, but a liberal Dem Aunt of mine (I have to admit, and she's never displayed a SHRED of racism) said "I just can't see a Black president" on the phone the other day. I almost fell off the couch. I should have asked her if she meant SHE couldn't see it or she thought Americans wouldn't vote a Black man in. I was too stunned to respond.
If Obama hadn't brought up the race card, we'd have been actually getting somewhere with seeing a young Black American run for president! (like him or NOT),.because Jesse Jackson's in hiding since his faux pas and, let's face it, that's the man responsible for most of the NONhealing we could have had if he didn't make a living promoting victimhood.
The Bradley Effect is quite simply the fear of being labeled a racist for not voting for the right candidate. Actually calling people racists is nothing more than a cop-out on the part of the left. By yelling "race" they seek to silence all meaningful debate. There are black Americans that I would gladly vote for but neither Thomas Sowell nor Walter Williams are on the ticket.
As one of the Seven Sages of Greece, Chilon of Sparta, once said, “Pledge, and ruin is near at hand.” (engua, para d’ ateh)
Or and old Italian proverb: "Alexander never did what he said, and Caesar never said what he did"
I prefer the Latin, Acta non Verba, best. For as Socrates say's in Plato's "Cratylus"...
..."no man of sense will like to put himself or the education of his mind in the power of names: neither will he so far trust names or the givers of names as to be confident in any knowledge which condemns himself and other existences to an unhealthy state of unreality;..."
People lie. Their "reasons" for doing so vary. There's only one poll that matters... and it's held on the first Tuesday of November.
Pollsters are like cowboys singing to their cattle at night, telling them which way they need to move. Most today are looking to start a stampeed for a man who's all hat and no cattle.
Moo.
OH, man, FJ....marvelous.
(and I GET it...miracles happen!)
and she thought she was SO smart!!
xxx
I love it when Uncle Hermes tells Argus and the rest of the Argives a bedtime story.
Of course, in listening you're likely to lose your head.
Try and stay out of the panopticon if you can. ;-)
"But the problem remains. Racism has tripled since 9/11. We were coming together as a nation back then and now we're back to where we were twenty years ago."
Exactly, Steve and there isn't any way it won't be a part of this campaign.
That should muddy the waters a bit. ;-)
Can someone provide proof that RACISM (against a RACE) has risen since 9/11?
thanks.
I agree with Shoprat and I also agree with fj that polls aren't really telling us anything, Z. I wouldn't be impressed or excited if they had McCain ahed by 30 points right now. More often than not they're wrong. It also depends on who they're polling or what questions they're asking. Sometimes questions can be worded like: "Did you quit beating your wife? Answer "yes" or "no". LOL! You are a wifebeater either way.
I do agree though that many folks are getting Obombinated! In their enthusiasm the media has overpublicized him. They are wearing most people out with it. It's like those stupid infamercials on Fox News in the evening with Billy Mays trying to sell everything from soup to nuts. He may be a perfectly nice guy but I want to strangle him! LOL!
Hi, Gayle....that's my whole point.
We think the polls are so clever and then there are things like this Bradley effect, etc. which can change anything. There's timing, tiredness (as per the link I added at the bottom of the post a few hours ago), new revelations, etc etc.
Polls today are ZILCH.
Hope your right Z!
Me, too, edge.......but it's not ME, it's pretty well proven the numbers will be effected by Tom Bradley!
Since when do we trust polls? And absolutely, there are probably those who will say they are voting for Obama simply not to be labeled as a racist. Because we will be.
Heidianne, you hit the nail on the head. I blame the media who are obsessed with this multicultural madness.
The focus on different 'groups' is bound to be polarizing. They look for reasons to find racism, sexism, or some other "ism".
This ia an orchestrated effort to appeal to folks like Ducky, who are determined to think the worst about their fellow Americans. For some, it's a way of life, and that's a real shame.
Pris
Interesting post. I will not vote for Obama and I do not care if they call me a racist. I do not care he is half white and half black - but I do care that his Muslim background has had a profound impact on who he is today and why he is what he is today.
Yesterday FNC reported the Obama camp is now saying those that do not vote for McCain are bigots. PFFFFFFFF!
My granddaughter is part white, part black, Croat, Lithuanian, German, Dutch, and American Indian.
Yeah I am a real bigot and racist OBAMA!
LOL! Sorry Z, my bad, I meant to write:
"....saying those that do not vote for OBAMAare bigots."
I wouldn't vote for Obama if he was green, purple, or plaid. It's the left of left socialist principles I dislike.
America will NEVER get over race distinction until we start by taking race off of standardized tests starting in elementary school and until we get rid of affirmative action.
Cube? I thought he WAS purple!? aren't we ALL?
Layla..NO problem, I'm just glad you're here.
Pops...yup
Or MAYBE Americans won't vote for Obama because....................THEY'RE TIRED OF HIM! check this out!
I knew that eventually, this would happen. You just can't maintain that level of worship, without people who don't want to jump on bandwagons and be "trendy", start gravitating toward the underdog.
since 9-11 Racism has got worse?
Well, I don't quite get that one.
Maybe some meant discrimination or something , regarding ethnic types?
Profiling or some such thing?
WVDOTTR
WV Dottr...weird, isn't it? It has NOT got worse.
Arabs aren't a RACE, so if the bleeding hearts are sad Americans are a bit wary of Arab muslims, and call us RACIST for that, they're wrong..and I say "TOUGH"...we're fearful of dying at the hands of extremists, we don't hate all Arabs.
Matter of fact, the stats show that there's been a REMARKABLY low number of Arab bashing, retribution, etc.
I fluctuate between being proud of America for that and feeling we're NUTS not to demand more than we do for proof people are NOT associated with terrorism!!!!
Z,
Actually, Arabs are considered white,. so I wish the basher stories would get their facts straight.
Now, if an Arab is a jihadist loving kind of person, yep, I would say people would not embrace such an individual.
But to say this is racist, is just trying to muddy the issue and shut us all up and make us feel bad .
Well, I would rather feel bad and alive than all touchy feely and get my arm blown off or something.
WVDOTTR
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