Friday, May 15, 2009

Germany's Recovering

… hundreds of people waiting for the opening of a new “Media-Markt” in Munich…. The economists in Germany are optimistic that the economy has “bottomed out”; Industrial production, which contracted in Germany by 3.2% in the first Quarter, is increasing. And there are many more signs of recovery. So, as this picture suggests, Merkel was right – it didn’t need an astronomical, idiotic non-stimulus stimulus package throwing tons of money at non-essential areas and pork like that done by of the Obama government and suggested to them by him….what do you know? They FOCUSED on their problem, no 'broad brush''s working.

Mr. Z


Ducky's here said...

Why do you assume the Germany and America's economic profile is identical and required the same action.

Sorry, that's an epic fail before you even get started.

An article that demonstrates why Germany's action would be desirable here (we also seem to be stabilizing) would have been interesting.

Z said...

Ducky, I don't believe anybody's saying they were identical, but Obama sure seemed to when he suggested to Germany and France they had to do the same stimulus we have to go through.

Even the most naysaying experts say it looks like we're stabilizing..for NOW. Their predictions for the future are far from inspiring. We believe that so much of the 'stimulus' package is pork, and so expensive ,that that will have negative consequences. Focusing on the mortgages or banks, if they HAD to, was the better short term solution which might have negated more long term expenses.

Ducky's here said...

z, Germany's banking system was one that came through this in much better shape than other nations.

Ours is completely bankrupt. The actions that had to be taken are necessarily different.

As usual DO NOT focus on the nature and cause of the problems so it isn't likely we can make a reasonable comment on the proper solution.

What you have here is an economic situation that is new. We haven't seen anything quite like this. It is hardly a normal boom/bust recession.
We all have opinions on this but it's very difficult to get a good complete analysis and we probably won't get one till the post mortem.

Z said...

I still maintain, as does Mr. Z, that huge money should not have been spent as what I've come to call SCATTER DOLLARS........thrown here and there for "shovel ready projects" whose shovels we've yet to see but that thing needed passing NOW.

I can see we're not in huge disagreement, Ducky...I just fear that the post mortem will be more MORTEM than POST.

And we still admire Merkel for not succumbing. (by the way, is there a weirder word than SUCCUMB? never thought of that!)

JINGOIST said...

Great post Mr. Z. I'm happy that the Germans are recovering and prospering. A rising tide does indeed lift all boats capable of floating. Those incapable of floating will always be helped and those unwilling to float--to hell with them!

As for the economic IDIOT that we've looks like purposeful damage to me.

Anonymous said...

Ducky, it seems that Obama actually made the statement yesterday, that our children will have to pay for this horrendous debt. Wow what a revelation!

So, while you defend the bail outs, can you defend piling more debt on top of that with a huge entitlement program like government healthcare? And, sooner or later, cap and trade which will pile on even more?

It seems to me he's going ahead like a bull in a china shop. Bottom line, the left's agenda is the only thing that matters, no matter what the cost. Government power over the people is what this is about.

I challenge you Ducky, to defend it.


Z said...

Pris, it seems we've got a president who can't think AHEAD.
Somehow, he keeps running forward and apologizing along the way .. usually dumping American interests along the way, huh? Pitiful.

Anonymous said...

Hi Z,
Yes, pitiful and dishonest. He's like an addict who says he's sorry, that is until his next "fix".

I think it's purposeful. He'll grant that these obstacles exist, then go on with the leftist agenda.

The consequences for the people don't matter. The goal is to have the population totally dependent on the government.

But hey, "he's cool", he has a nice smile. To the cult followers, "image is everything".


Anonymous said...

That is good to hear. But i worry about the long-term future of Europe. Their long-term is not looking good.

Anonymous said...


Can you recommend any reading on Keynsian economics so I can get a better idea where you're coming from?

tio bowser

JINGOIST said...

tio, what Obama's doing isn't even Keynesian, it's WAY, WAY beyond the deficit spending that Keynes thought necessary and it's outright DAMAGE to our long term economic prospects. That's a fact.

I think it purposeful.

Deborah on the Bayside said...

Nice observation Mr. Z! And Jingoist is right.

First, may I add: yes, there are some differences between our two countries. In the first place, it’s unlikely the German government pushed for policies to force banks to make loans to unqualified borrowers (a key seed policy that made possible this whole house of cards - thank you Jimmy Carter, Christopher Dodd, Barney Frank et al).

Nor was Angela Merkel once an aggressive public interest lawyer who was active in that same movement.

Sadly, the same can’t be said of President Obama -- who was. And he was also “coincidentally” one of the biggest recipients of this special interest group’s campaign largesse (not all special interests are bad special interests – only the ones that send their money to candidates with an “R” after their name – eh Barack?)

.... But I digress.

Okay. Lots of studies put the “ideal” size of government between 17-30% of GDP (bigger in homogenous societies than heterogeneous ones - and ideal roughly being big enough to keep the peace and small enough to not suck all the life out of the economy). A widely accepted number comes in at under 25%, sensibly below where the pitiable Mr. Obama's projections will take us.

Is it coincidence, then, that periods of the U.S. rapid economic growth are associated with government as a smaller size of GDP and vice versa (compare the mid-80’s and mid-90’s to the 70’s!). True in U.S.; true in Europe where government spending as an increasing percent of GDP has brought slower growth and higher unemployment.

Does Ms. Merkel know something Mr. Obama doesn’t? (STIMULUS = SLOWER GROWTH + HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT.)

Or does Ms. Merkel WANT something Mr. Obama doesn’t?

We’re assuming his goal is recovery and growth -- when equality of outcome, not opportunity, may be more in his sights.

Don't say we weren't warned. This is one pol who is delivering on his promises!

Z said...

Deborah, he SURE IS delivering...darn.

yes, Merkel knows something he doesn't know; her country suffered with Socialism for 50 years. She lived in the East for a while, too.......SHE knows the truth.!!
And, both her parents are more left than she is. She's heard it, lived it, and wants NOTHING to do with it.
Eine sehr kluge frau...glaubst du mir